Analysis 1st 2012 Presidential Debate Governor Willard Romney (R-MA) vs. President Barack Obama (D-IL) University of Denver, Denver Colorado Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Part I: Mitt Romney

1)    Former Massachusetts Governor Willard Romney started out by stating that, as President, he was “not going to cut taxes on the rich”.

a.     That is a lie.

i.              Romney told the Wall Street Journal on August 13th that he was “on the same page” with the “budget” of his running mate, Kenosha County, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan. According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities: “people making more than $1 million a year would receive 39 percent” of the tax cuts in Ryan’s “budget”. The Brookings Institution’s Tax Policy Center states that “people earning more than $1 million a year would receive $265,000 apiece in new tax cuts, on average”. [17]

Andrew Fieldhouse of the Economic Policy Institute writes that “Millionaires would see their average tax rate fall to 12.8 percent, less than half of what they would pay under current policy, for an average tax cut of $502,000.” [8]

Romney hinted that he would offset his proposed cuts by eliminating, closing or reducing certain tax credits, exemptions, and loopholes to “broaden the tax base”. However, neither Romney nor Ryan has specified one single expenditure he wants to get rid of. Trying to unpack Romney’s plan, the Urban Institute tried to choose the deductions that “most keep with the guiding principles Romney has outlined” (referred to as “tax preferences”). Starting with deductions for top earners first, Urban factored in $88,444 in lost deductions, off of a savings of $175,961 for people who earn $1 million or more in taxable income, for an average net tax decrease of $87,117. The biggest sticking point is that, in a column in the New York Times by Economist Paul Krugman, Representative Ryan “categorically rule[s] out any move to close the major loophole that benefits the rich”.

2)    Next, Ex-Governor Romney stated: “I don’t have five trillion dollar tax cuts.”

b.     This, too, is a lie.

ii.     In a March 1^st report, the TPC found that Romney’s tax plan would “lower federal tax liability” by $480 billion annually. The campaign of President Barack Obama accurately extrapolates that figure out to $4.8 trillion over a decade, which it then rounds up to five trillion.

3)    Romney then repeated his previous lie that he was “not going to reduce taxes on high income people”.

4)    Romney then admitted the fact that oil production has increased under President Obama, but claimed that all of the increase was “not on government land”.

c.     This is a lie.

iii.                 According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, oil production on federal land rose 3.7% from 108 million barrels in 2010 to 112 million barrels in 2011.

5)    Romney went on to state that, as President, he would “bring the [Keystone XL] pipeline in from Canada”.

iv.              TransCanada told Canada’s National Energy board that the pipeline would increase crude oil prices in the Midwest, raising gas prices by as much as twenty cents per gallon, because it is designed to transfer the excess of cheap oil from the Midwest to overseas markets, and the Southern portion of the pipeline would relieve the current glut of oil in the Midwest. In a September 2011 report titled “Four Ways Keystone XL Could Be A Job Killer”, the Cornell University Global Labor Institute stated: “There is evidence to suggest that the effects of KXL construction could very well lead to more jobs being lost than are created…Put simply, KXL’s job creation potential is relatively small, and could be completely outweighed by the project’s potential to destroy jobs through rising fuel costs, spill damage and clean up operations, air pollution and increase in GHG emissions.” [10]

6)    Romney then went on with a variation on his previous claim, that there would be “no tax cut that adds to the deficit”.

d.     This too, however, was a lie.

v.               The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that Romney’s plan will increase the deficit by a total of $2.6 trillion by 2021.

7)    Romney then followed up by again repeating his previous lie that he would “not reduce taxes on the upper class”.

8)    Then Romney repeated the lie that there would be “no tax cut that adds to the deficit”.

9)    He then repeated his lie that he “will not reduce [taxes] paid by high income individuals”.

10) And then repeated him with the variation that he “will not reduce taxes on high incomes”.

11) Then he again lied that he was “not in favor of five trillion [dollars] in tax cuts”.

12) Then he lied again there no be “any tax cuts that add to the deficit”.

13) Romney claimed that his tax plan had “not been tried before”.

e.     This is untrue.

vi.              U.S House of Representatives Committee on Oversight and Government Reform Ranking Member, Representative Elijah Cummings of Maryland’s 7th Congressional District published a April 12, 2012 report by Chuck Marr for the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities entitled “New Tax Cuts in Ryan Budget Would Give Millionaires $265,000 on Top of Bush Tax Cuts”, which reads: “New Analysis by the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center (TPC) finds that people making more than $1 million a year would receive $265,000 apiece in new tax cuts, on top of the $129,000 they would receive from the Ryan budget’s extension of President Bush’s tax cuts.” [17]

14) Romney then stated that, as President, he would “stop subsidies to PBS”.

vii.            PBS released a statement on October 4th noting that “the federal investment in public broadcasting equals about one one-hundredth of one percent of the federal budget. Elimination of funding would have virtually no impact on the nation’s debt.” [4] 

Politico reported, on October 4th: “in the 2012 fiscal year, CPB was given…about 0.012 percent of the entire federal budget”.

15) Romney then stated that President Obama has added “as much debt as all Presidents combined”.

f.      This is a lie.

viii.           According to the U.S. Department of Treasury at the end of fiscal year 2008 and the start of fiscal year 2009, on October 1st, 2008, the debt owed to the public accumulated by the previous 43 Presidents was $5.851 Trillion. On President Obama’s inauguration date, the President’s first day in office, January 20th, 2009, the public debt stood at $6.307 trillion. At the start of fiscal year 2010, President Obama’s first full budget year, on October 1st, 2009, the public debt was $7.506 trillion. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the debt owed by the public reached $11.2 trillion at the end of fiscal year 2012 on September 30^th. That’s an increase of 77 percent. The Treasury Department website calculates that the gross federal debt on January 20^th, 2009 stood at $10.627 trillion. The CBO says that the total debt is $16 trillion as of September 30^th. That’s an increase of $5.4 trillion. While that increase does equal 51%, $5.4 trillion is one third of the $16 trillion gross debt. In spite of the fact that this is more than the 4.9 trillion accrued by President Obama’s predecessor, George W. Bush, even this calculation is highly misleading. In a January 31^st column for the Washington Post, Ezra Klein estimates that President Obama’s policies are responsible for $983 billion of the nearly four trillion dollar increase in public debt over the course of his administration, and that Bush policies were responsible for the vast majority of the debt increase under the Obama administration. On May 20th, 2011, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities chief economist Chad Stone wrote that “Bush era tax cuts and the Iraq and Afghanistan wars account for almost half of the projected public debt in 2019” and that without the Bush tax cuts and the two wars, the national debt would be approximately half of what it is today. An August 20th, 2011 Associated Press article stated that the rise in federal debt came “not from political decisions” but from a “deep recession”; and on Jun 12^th, Kevin Drum wrote, for Mother Jones that, without Bush policies: “If we had merely hung onto the policies of the Clinton administration…and avoided the disastrous war in Iraq, we would have entered the Great Recession with one of the lowest debt levels in the advanced world.”

16) Romney then claimed that, under President Obama, there would be “trillion dollar deficits.

g.     This, too, is a lie.

ix.              In August, the Congressional Budget Office stated: “the deficit will shrink to an estimated $641 billion in fiscal year 2013.” [3] 

According to National Public Radio on February 14th, 2011, the CBO projected that the deficit in 2016 would be $649 billion. The National Priorities Project projected on February 29th that the budget deficit would drop to $612 billion by fiscal year 2017. 

17) Romney then followed up with the bizarre statement that, if President Obama is re-elected, the United States, “Will have a trillion dollar debt.”

h.     This statement is demonstratively incognizant of the real world.

x.               Stephen Bloch of Adelphi University writes that the final public debt was $1.144034 trillion in the fiscal year October 1981-September, 1982. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysts, the National Debt was $1.028729 trillion in 1981, according to the White House’s fiscal year 2009 budget the gross public debt was $1.137 trillion in 1982, according to the United States Census Bureau, the gross public debt was $1.05760 trillion in 1978, and according to the U.S. Department of Treasury, the debt outstanding was $1.142034 trillion on September 30th, 1982 and on December 31st, 1981, the national debt was $1.028729 trillion. Adjusted for inflation, the federal debt was $1.795 trillion in 1977. 

18) Romney then claimed that there was “no deduction for overseas plants”.

i.      This is a lie.

xi.              In a speech arguing for S-3816, the Creating American Jobs and Ending Off shoring Act, on the Senate floor on Monday, September 27th, 2010, Rhode Island Senator Sheldon Whitehouse said: “The law, right now, permits companies that close down American factories and offices and move those jobs overseas to take a tax deduction for the cost associated with moving the jobs to China or India or wherever.” Economic Policy Institute senior international economist Robert E. Scott confirms “Businesses that have expenses of any kind are allowed to deduct them against income, and that would include any kind of shutdown expenses having to do with a plant…If they decide to scrap equipment they’re shipping to China they could write down the depreciated value and take that off against their taxes as well.” AFL-CIO Deputy Chief of Staff Thea Lee said: “You can take a business deduction for the costs associated with moving the job. So if you close down your factory in Providence, pack everything up and have to train the workers and ship the machinery overseas, all costs associated with that are tax deductions.” [19]

19) Romney then claimed the President Obama was “cutting $716 billion from Medicare”.

j.              This is a lie.

xii.  In an estimate, the Congressional Budget Office determined the health care law would reduce Medicare outlays by $716 billion between 2013 and 2022. On August 18th, ABC News reported that “The $716 billion in cuts do not affect benefits for today’s seniors and instead reduce provider reimbursements and are intended to curb waste, fraud, and abuse.” Sarah Kliff wrote for the Washington Post on August 15th: “It’s worth noting that there’s one area these cuts don’t touch: Medicare benefits. The Affordable Care Act rolls back payment rates for hospitals and insurers. It does not, however, change the basket of benefits that patients have access to.” [15] 

The Annenberg Public Policy Center on June 28th noted: “Most of those savings come from reductions in the future growth of payments to hospitals and other providers, not physicians, and a reduction in payments to private Medicare Advantage plans to bring payroll in line with traditional Medicare. MA plans have been paid more per beneficiary than traditional Medicare.” And on March 19th, 2010: “The bill aims to reduce the heftier payments made by the government to Medicare Advantage plans, compared with regular fee-for-service Medicare.” [18] 

The Pulitzer Prize Winning Tampa Bay Times wrote on August 12th that: “The law limits payments to health care providers and insurers to try to reduce the rapid growth in future Medicare spending.” The CBO predicts the program is still projected to grow, just at a slower rate: $929 billion in 2020 up from $499 billion in 2009. University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill Social Medicine and Health Policy Professor Jonathan Oberlander said: “ObamaCare improves Medicare’s benefits and its financial condition.” [13] 

Kaiser Family Foundation Medicare Policy Project director Tricia Neuman said “Some reforms increase Medicare spending to improve benefits and coverage. Other provisions reduce the growth in Medicare spending to help the program operate more efficiently and help fund coverage expansions to the uninsured in the underlying health reform legislation. Other provisions are designed to improve the delivery of care and quality of care.”

20) Romney then went on to follow up by saying that the United States was going to “lose Medicare Advantage”.

k.            This, too, is a lie.

xiii.                North Carolina School of Medicine Health Policy Professor Jonathan Oberlandaer told the Pulitzer Prize Winning Tampa Bay Times: “The Affordable Care Act reduces payments to Medicare Advantage plans. They’re overpaid by quite a lot—excess payments above and beyond what it costs to treat people. As a result of that, there are projections that some of those plans are going to trim some of the extra benefits. It doesn’t affect core benefits, the required Medicare benefits.” According to Sara Kliff on August 14th in the Washington Post: “The Medicare Advantage cut gets the most attention, but it only accounts for about a third of the Affordable Care Act’s spending reduction.” [15] 

The Pulitzer Prize Winning Tampa Bay Times on August 15th wrote: “The law makes significant reductions to Medicare Advantage, a subset of Medicare plans run by private insurers. Medicare Advantage was started under President George W. Bush, and…the plans have actually cost more than traditional Medicare. So the health care law scales back the payments to private insurers.” 

21) Romney then claimed that the CBO stated that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act will “cost more”.

l.              That is a lie.

xiv.                In a March 13th report titled “The Estimated Cost of the Insurance Coverage Provisions is Smaller than Estimated in March 2011”, the Congressional Budget Office reported: “CBO and JCT now estimate that the insurance provisions of the ACA will have a net cost of $1.1 trillion over the 2012-2021 period—about $50 billion less than the agencies’ March 2011 estimate for that 10-year period.” A March 13th Reuters article reads: “The estimated net costs of expanding healthcare coverage under President Barack Obama’s landmark restructuring have been reduced by $48 billion through 2021”. [16] 

In the Washington Post on March 15, Ezra Klein noted: “It appears to add up to a net reduction in the cost of the health-care law…This analysis shows the net cost of the coverage provisions will be about $50 billion less than previously estimated.” A March 14th CBS News article, titled “CBO Lowers Health Reform Cost Estimate”, noted: “Congressional economists are estimating somewhat lower costs for covering the uninsured under President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul law…Total costs from 2012-2021 are about $50 Billion lower than estimated last year.” [20] 

In a March 15th Mother Jones article titled “The Cost of ObamaCare Has Gone Down, Not Up”, Kevin Drum wrote: “If you compare the original 2012-21 time period, CBO’s new estimate of the cost of ObamaCare is $48 billion less than it was last year.” [6]

22) Romney then claimed that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act “kill jobs”.

m.           This is a lie.

xv.  A January 26th, 2009 study by the National Federation of Independent Businesses, the nation’s largest small business association, found that “The employer mandate would boost demand for healthcare goods and services, thereby increasing employment in healthcare-related sectors. The number of ambulatory healthcare professionals needed will increase by 330,000. An additional 327,000 staff will be required to work in hospitals. Some 157,000 more nurses will be needed to staff doctors’ offices, outpatient clinics, and other provider locations. And payrolls at insurance companies will expand by 76,000 workers.”

23) Romney then claimed, “ObamaCare raises taxes”.

xvi.                Families USA Foundation Senior Health Policy Analyst Jennifer Sullivan and Health Policy Executive Director Kathleen Stoll in September 2010 pointed out lower taxes for 28.6 million Americans under the health care laws. The Washington Post found that middle class individuals are expected to receive $343 billion in subsidies and credits. A 2010 Daily Finance article noted: “Most people will not see a tax increase.” [21] 

The Joint Committee on Taxation estimated that 47 percent, $317.7 billion, of the total revenue from the ACA over ten years is accounted for an additional 0.9 percent increase in Medicare payroll taxes, from 2.9 percent to 3.8 percent, on income above $250,000 a year for couples and a 3.8 percent tax on investment income on those earning more than $200,000 a year. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that another $111 billion over 10 years is brought in by the excise tax on high-cost, high-dollar “Cadillac” health insurance plans that cost more than average, over 10,200 for individuals and 27,500 for families. The AARP pointed out that “cost savings form the health care law would depend on whether your income is on the high side, [and] whether you have Cadillac employer-sponsored health care coverage”.

24) Romney then claimed that the Congressional Budget Office said: “20 million will lose insurance”.

n.            That, too, is a lie.

xvii.              The Congressional Budget Office estimates a net gain of 3 million people with employer-sponsored insurance. Rand Corporation Health’s Comprehensive Assessment of Reform Efforts Director Christine Eibner projected that about 4 million more individuals would be covered by employment-based coverage by 2016.

25) Romney the repeated his lie that “ObamaCare cuts Medicare by $716 billion”.

26) Former Republican Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney then claimed: “Preexisting conditions does not need a mandate”.

o.            That is a lie.

xviii.             Massachusetts Institute of Technology Economics Professor Jonathan Gruber explains: “Individuals subject to the harsh “non-group” market face exclusions from preexisting illness or can be dropped as soon as they become ill. And the key to solving this problem is the individual mandate, which can end insurance market discrimination by promoting broad insurance participation.”

27) The former Governor of Massachusetts then claimed a “government takeover of healthcare”.

p.            This is a lie.

xix.                Princeton University Professor Uwe Reinhardt said: “Yes, there would be a substantial government-mandated reorganization of this relatively small corner of the private health insurance market that serves people who have been buying individual policies. But that hardly constitutes a government takeover of American health care.” [1] 

George Washington University Health Policy Professor Brian Biles said: “the law…isn’t the government making decisions for the patient”. Georgetown University health systems administration professor Robert Friedland said: “the notion that this is somehow the government taking over your medical decisions or options is like saying employers are taking over your medical decisions by shopping for a better health insurance plan—It is hardly a case of your employer taking over your decisions.” [12] 

The University of Pennsylvania said that the law will not lead to “government-run” health care, and that reform plan is nether “government-run” nor a “government takeover”. University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill Health Policy Professor Jonathan Oberlander said: “The label “government takeover” has no basis in reality, but instead reflects a political dynamic where conservatives label any increase in government authority in health care as a “takeover”.” [5] 

In an August 2011 column titled “Are We Headed For A Government Takeover Of Health Care?”, Kaiser Family Foundation President and Chief Executive Officer Drew Altman wrote: “Measured by the government’s share of health care spending, there is no sign of a government takeover of the health care system.” [2] The Associated Press said: “the law does not add up to a government takeover.” The Washington Post said: “the government takeover label is simply not true.” [9] 

Slate said: “the proposed health care reform does not take over the system in any sense.” [11]

28) Romney then claimed: “half of businesses have gone out of business”.

q.            That is a lie.

xx.  According to Pulitzer Prize Winning ProPublica reporter Michael Grabell: “A very small percentage of all the companies that benefited from the $90 billion in green job spending have gone out of business. Not half of them. Not even half of the loan guarantees.” The University of Pennsylvania Annenberg School for Communications’ Annenberg Public Policy Center wrote: “The bankruptcy rate would fall to under 11 percent, and the money at risk drops to about 4 percent.” [14] 

According to a September 28th analysis by Bloomberg Government: “Only three out of 26 loan guarantees dispersed under the relevant Department of Energy loan guarantee program have gone to companies that later filed for bankruptcy.”

29) Romney then followed up by claiming that these were “businesses owned by campaign donors”.

r.             That, too, is lie. 

xxi.                Department of Energy Inspector General Gregory Friedman stated: “None of the cases that resulted in convictions for Recovery Act fraud related to the directing of contracts or grants to friends or family.” According to Politico: “Investigations launched by the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee and the Energy and Commerce Committee have yet to turn up evidence of political favors to democrats in the loan program.” [7]

Conclusions:

29 Statements

18 Lies

21 Misinformation

8 Repetitions

1. Adair, Bill and Holan, Angie. “Politifact’s Lie Of The Year: “A Government Takeover Of Health Care”. Tampa Bay Times. Thursday December 16, 2010. http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2010/dec/16/lie-year-government-takeover-health-care/  
2. Altman, Drew. “Are We Headed For A Government Takeover Of Health Care?”. The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation. July 29, 2011. http://kff.org/health-costs/perspective/pulling-it-together-are-we-headed-for/  
3. “An Update To The Budget And Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 To 2022”. Congressional Budget Office. August 2012. http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43539-08-22-2012-Update_One-Col.pdf
4. Bentley, Anne and McNamara, Jan. “PBS Statement Regarding October 3 Presidential Debate”. Public Broadcasting Service. October 4, 2012. http://www.pbs.org/about/news/archive/2012/statement-presidential-debate/ 
5. “Carolina In The News”. The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Thursday August 30, 2012. http://uncnews.unc.edu/content/view/5517/103/
6. Drum, Kevin. “The Cost Of ObamaCare Has Gone Down, Not Up”. Mother Jones. Thursday March 15, 2012. http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/03/cost-obamacare-has-gone-down-not
7. Farley, Robert. “Romney’s Solar Flareout”. University of Pennsylvania Annenberg School for Communication Annenberg Public Policy Center. June 1, 2012. http://www.factcheck.org/2012/06/romneys-solar-flareout/
8. Fieldhouse, Andrew. “What A Romney-Ryan Budget Would Mean For Americans”. Economic Policy Institute. August 13, 2012. http://www.epi.org/blog/romney-ryan-budget-americans/
9. “George Allen Calls President Obama’s Health Care Law “A Government Takeover Of Healthcare.”. Richmond Times Dispatch. Saturday June 16, 2012. http://www.politifact.com/virginia/statements/2012/jul/01/george-allen/george-allen-calls-health-care-law-government-take/ 
10. Goodman, I. et al.. “Pipe Dreams? Jobs Gained, Jobs Lost By The Construction Of Keystone XL”. Cornell University School for Industrial and Labor Relations Global Labor Institute. January 2012. http://www.ilr.cornell.edu/globallaborinstitute/research/upload/GLI_KeystoneXL_012312_FIN.pdf
11. Gross, Daniel. “What “Government Takeover”?”. Slate. March 10, 2010. http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2010/03/what_government_takeover.html
12. “In Senate Race, Tommy Thompson Says Tammy Baldwin Supports Government Takeover Of Medical Decisions On Medicine, On Doctors, And On Hospitals.”. Milwaukee Wisconsin Journal Sentinel. http://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/statements/2012/oct/10/tommy-thompson/senate-race-thompson-says-baldwin-backs-government/
13. “Jon Runyan Says, “If We Do Nothing And Continue to Let ObamaCare Siphon Off $700 Billion Dollars In Cuts From Medicare, Medicare Will Disappear In Less Than 10 Years”. The Star-Ledger. Monday September 17, 2012. http://www.politifact.com/new-jersey/statements/2012/sep/20/jon-runyan/jon-runyan-says-if-nothing-done-stop-700-billion-c/ 
14. Kiely, Eugene. “Romney’s Clean Energy Whoppers”. University of Pennsylvanian Annenberg School for Communication Annenberg Public Policy Center. October 8, 2012. http://www.factcheck.org/2012/10/romneys-clean-energy-whoppers/
15. Kliff, Sarah. “Romney’s Right: ObamaCare Cuts Medicare By $716 Billion. Here’s How.”. The Washington Post. August 14, 2012. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/08/14/romneys-right-obamacare-cuts-medicare-by-716-billion-heres-how/ 
16. Lawder, David. “CBO Cuts Cost Estimate For Obama Healthcare Law”. Reuters. Tuesday March 13, 2012. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/14/us-usa-budget-deficit-idUSBRE82C19Q20120314?irpc=932
17. Marr, Chuck. “New Tax Cuts In Ryan Budget Would Give Millionaires $265,000 On Top Of Bush Tax Cuts”. Center On Budget And Policy Priorities. April 12, 2012. http://www.cbpp.org/files/3-27-12tax.pdf http://democrats.oversight.house.gov/images/stories/CBPP%20Report%20on%20Ryan's%20New%20Tax%20Cuts%20for%20Wealthy%2004-12-12.pdf
18. Robertson, Lori. “A Final Weekend Of Whoppers?”. University of Pennsylvania Annenberg School for Communication Annenberg Public Policy Center. March 19, 2012. http://www.factcheck.org/2010/03/a-final-weekend-of-whoppers/
19. “Sheldon Whitehouse Says “The Law, Right Now, Permits Companies That close Down American Factories And Offices And Move Those Jobs Overseas To Get A Tax Break For Moving The Jobs To China Or India Or Wherever.”. Providence Journal. Monday September 27, 2010. http://www.politifact.com/rhode-island/statements/2010/nov/21/sheldon-whitehouse/whitehouse-says-companies-get-tax-break-moving-job/
20. The Associated Press. “CBO Lowers Health Reform Cost Estimate”. CBS News. March 14, 2012. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57397032/cbo-lowers-health-reform-cost-estimate/
21.  “U.S. Chamber Of Commerce Ad Says “ObamaCare [Hit] Americans With Over $500 Billion In New Taxes”. Tampa Bay Times. Wednesday February 8, 2012. http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2012/feb/16/us-chamber-commerce/chamber-commerce-ad-says-obamacare-hit-americans-o/
    

Part II: Barack Obama

1)    When given his chance, President of the United States Barack Obama stated his goal of hiring a hundred thousand new math and science teachers.

2)    President Obama then iterated the fact that his administration had “lower[ed] taxes on 98% of all Americans”.

a.     This is true.

j.      A provision of the American Recovery and reinvestment Act, passed in 2009, cut for 95 percent of working families by changing withholding rates. The Tax Policy center analyzed the effects of Obama’s tax proposals for workers and determined 94.3 percent of tax filers would receive a tax cut under Obama’s plan based on the tax credit to offset payroll taxes. 

3)    President Obama then repeated his ambition for “1990’s tax rates” on those making $250,000 or more per year.

4)    The President followed up his previous statement by affirming “97% of small businesses will not see a tax increase”.

b.     This, too, is true. 

ii.     In a June 18th memorandum, the Joint Committee on Taxation “estimates that in 2013 approximately…3.5 percent of all taxpayers with net positive business income will have marginal rates of 36 or 39.6 percent under the President’s proposal”. A July 19th report from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities showed that “only 2.5 percent of small business owners face the top two rates.” [6] 

In the Washington Post on August 1st, 2010, Tax Policy Center co-director William Gale explained how “less than 2 percent of tax returns reporting small-business income are filed by taxpayers in the top two income brackets—individuals earning more than about $170,000 a year and families earning more than about $210,000 a year.” [4] 

5)    President Obama touted his plan for “Four trillion dollars in deficit reduction”.

c.     This is true.

iii.                 The Center for Budget and Policy Priorities estimated that the President’s combination of spending cuts and tax increases would lower deficits by $3.8 trillion over the 10-year horizon. The total included $1.7 trillion in reductions that the President and Congress agreed to in 2011. 54% of the reductions would come through spending cuts and 46% would come from higher revenues.

6)    President Obama touted his Administration’s fulfillment of his campaign promise to save seniors $600 on prescriptions.

d.     This, too, is true.

iii.   According to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, a Division of the Department of Health and Human Services on January 4, 2011: “The way the plan is structured…seniors…must pay the first $310…for prescriptions…before coverage kicks in. For subsequent total drug costs between $310 and $2,830…the patient is responsible for a co-payment and deductible, and the plan shares prescription drug costs…the government will pay 75 percent and the beneficiaries 25 percent…until the total costs of all prescription drugs in a year reaches $2,830. At that point…starting at $2,830…beneficiaries are responsible for paying 100 percent of their prescription drug cost…until they hit an out-of-pocket limit of $4,550. The gap between the normal coverage and catastrophic coverage is what is known as the coverage gap, or “doughnut hole”…that limits benefits for seniors with more than $2,250 but less than $5,100 in annual drug costs…until the total cost reaches $6,440. After that, their coverage takes over again…with the government paying 95 percent of costs covered by “catastrophic coverage”. As reported in the Los Angeles Times on March 26th, 2010, the doughnut hole is addressed by the “Medicare Coverage Gap Discount Program” on page 343, Subtitle D, Section 3301 of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010. [7] 

According to Georgetown University health policy analyst Jack Hoadley for the Kaiser Family Foundation on January 4th, 2011, 3.4 million seniors reached the coverage gap in 2007, and approximately 4 million seniors hit the doughnut hole in 2006. The CMS on February 29th totaled the number of people in the doughnut hole in 2011 at 3,758,024, 3.6 million in the 50 states. The CMS estimated that total discounts added up to $2.1 billion, enjoyed by 3,576,640 beneficiaries, for an average savings of $604 per beneficiary.

7)    The President iterated that his policies had extended the Medicare trust find by 8 years.

e.     This is true.

iv.   As reported by Politico on August 15th, Obama Spokesman Ben Labolt said “President Obama extended the solvency of Medicare by 8 years by passing the Affordable Care Act, and his budget would add another two years to its lifetime.” [1] 

As reported in the New York Times on July 6th: “Since the passage of the health care law, known as the Affordable Care Act, the Medicare trustees have shifted the projected date of insolvency to 2024 from 2016.” [2]

On April 23rd, The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services wrote: “The Medicare Trustees Report released today shows that the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund is expected to remain solvent until 2024…Without the Affordable Care Act, the HI Trust Fund would expire 8 years earlier, in 2016.” In an April 24th report titled “Medicare is not Bankrupt, Health Reform has Improved Program’s Financing”, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities wrote: “The 2012 report of Medicare’s trustees finds that Medicare‘s Hospital Insurance trust fund will remain solvent—that is, able to pay 100 percent of the costs of the hospital insurance coverage that Medicare provides—through 2024…But Medicare hospital insurance will not run out of all financial resources and cease to operate after 2024, as the “bankruptcy” term may suggest…Medicare’s financing challenges would be significantly greater without the health reform law(the Affordable Care Act, or ACA), which substantially improved the program’s financial outlook.” [9]

August 16th, Sarah Kliff wrote in the Washington Post: “The health care law extended the solvency of Medicare’s Trust Fund…The Independent Medicare Board of Trustees estimated that with these cuts the trust fund would remain solvent through 2024. Without these cuts, however, the budget gets a little tighter…. And this means, according to these trustees, that the trust fund would no longer be able to cover Medicare’s costs as soon as 2016.” The chief actuary for the Medicare and Medicaid Programs, Richard S. Foster stated on April 23rd that: “Obama’s Affordable Care Act makes important changes to the Medicare program and substantially improves its financial outlook.” [3]

8)    The First African American President of the United States then boasted about his policy allowing 26-year-olds to remain on their parents’ health insurance.

f.      This is true.

v.     A December 14th, 2011 HHS press release titled “Affordable Care Act Helps 2.5 Million Additional Young Adults Get Health Insurance” states: "Because of the health care law, young adults can stay on their parents’ insurance plans through age 26…. Data from the National Health Interview Survey shows that since September 2010, the percentage of adults aged 19-25 covered by a private health insurance plan increased significantly, with approximately 2.5 million more adults with insurance coverage compared to the number of young adults who would have been insured without the law.” [8] 

HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said: “Thanks to the Affordable Care Act, 2.5 million more young adults don’t have to live with the fear and uncertainty of going without health insurance. Moms and dads around the country can breathe a little easier knowing their children are covered.” [5]

9)    The Democratic President then reiterated his goal of “100,000 math and science teachers.”

Conclusions:

9 Statements

6 Facts

3 Repetitions

1. Byers, Alex and Tau, Byron. “Flashback: 2010 Obama-Ryan Exchange Foreshadowed Current Medicare Debate”. Politico. August 15, 2012. http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/08/flashback-obamaryan-exchange-foreshadows-current-132202.html
2. Calmes, Jackie. “Delicate Pivot As Republicans Blast Rivals On Medicare Cuts”. The New York Times. July 6, 2012. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/07/us/politics/mixed-message-as-republicans-claim-health-law-cuts-medicare.html?_r=1&  
3. “Fact Checking The Vice Presidential Debate”. ABC News. October 12, 2012. http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/abcs-fact-check-team-assesses-debate-joe-biden/story?id=17459881#.UIokcxyxL_Q
4. Gale, William. “Five Myths About The Bush Tax Cuts”. The Washington Post. Sunday August 1, 2010. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/30/AR2010073002671.html
5. Hall, Mike. “Health Care Reform Brings Coverage To 2.5 Million More Young People”. American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations. December 14, 2011. http://www.aflcio.org/Blog/Political-Action-Legislation/Health-Care-Reform-Brings-Coverage-to-2.5-Million-More-Young-People
6. Huang, Chye-Ching and Marr, Chuck. “Allowing High-Income Bush Tax Cuts To Expire Would Affect Few Small Businesses”. Center on Budge and Policy Priorities. July 19, 2012. http://www.cbpp.org/files/7-19-12tax.pdf
7. Rice, Cheri. “Medicare Coverage Gap Discount Program—Dispute Resolution”. Department Of Health And Human Services Centers For Medicare And Medicaid Services Center For Medicare Plan Payment Group. March 5, 2012. http://www.cms.gov/Medicare/Prescription-Drug-Coverage/PrescriptionDrugCovGenIn/Downloads/DisputeResolution.pdf
8. Sebelius, Kathleen. “Affordable Care Act Helps 2.5 Million Additional Young Adults Get Health Insurance: Expanded Coverage From Health Care Law Has Continued To Grow”. U.S. Department Of Health And Human Services. December 14, 2011. http://www.hhs.gov/news/press/2011pres/12/20111214d.html
9. Water, Paul. “Medicare Is Not “Bankrupt”: Health Reform Has Improved Program’s Financing”. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. June 3, 2013. http://www.cbpp.org/files/7-12-11health.pdf