Analysis: 3rd Presidential Debate President Barack Obama vs. Willard “Mitt” Romney Lynn University, Boca Raton, Florida Monday, October 22, 2012

Part 1: Willard Romney

1) Romney claimed the economy is not stronger.

a.     That is a lie.

                                                i.         According to Center for Economic and Policy Research co-director Dean Baker on February 4th: “The economy has grown and we’ve seen unemployment fall.” [2]
On August 30th, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities wrote that “the pace of recovery…has been growing for 12 straight quarters ” and that “private employers have added nearly 4.5 million jobs to their payrolls in the last 29 moths, an average of 157,000 jobs a month.” 

2) Romney then followed up by claiming that President Obama’s administration has “weakened our economy”.

b.     That, too, is a lie.

ii.              In a November 2009 report, the Congressional Budget office wrote: "CBO estimates that in the third quarter of calendar year 2009, an additional 600,000 to 1.6 million people were employed in the United States, and real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) was 1.2 percent to 3.2 percent higher, than would have been the case in the absence of [the multiyear $814 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act].” [3]
An August 24, 2010 CBO report stated: “CBO estimates that ARRA’s policies had the following effect in the second quarter of calendar year 2010: They raised real (inflation adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) by between 1.7 and 4.5 percent, Lowered the unemployment rate by between 0.7 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points, (and) increased the number of people employed by between 1.4 million and 3.3 million.” In a March 28, 2011 report, the President’s Council of Economic Advisers estimated that the fiscal stimulus created between 2.5 and 3.6 million jobs and added $460 billion to gross domestic product through the fourth quarter of 2010. A May CBO report found that the stimulus created the equivalent of up to 4.7 million jobs in 2010 and the equivalent of up to 3.6 million jobs in 2011, and increased real GDP by up to 4.1 percent in 2010 and by 2.3 percent in 2011.

3) Romney claimed that President Obama promised that unemployment would 5.4% by today.

c.     That is a lie.

iii.            On September 20^th, The University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School’s Annenberg School for Communication wrote: “Romney is referring to a speculative report…containing projections—not promises.”

4) Romney claimed that his tax plan would create “twelve million new jobs”.

d.     That is a lie.

iv.            The New York Times’ Catherine Rampell reported on August 7th that the economic research firm Moody’s analytics predicted the creation of 11.8 million jobs over the next four years from 2013 to 2016, and that: “In its semi-annual long-term economic forecast released in April, Macroeconomic advisers projected that the economy would add 11.8 million jobs from 2012 to 2016.” [7]
On October 16th, The New York Times reported: “Mr. Romney has promised to create 12 million jobs over the next four years if he is elected President. That is actually about as many jobs as the economy is already expected to create, according to some economic forecasters.” [1]
The Washington Post’s Greg Sargent reported on August 3rd that, according to Moody’s senior analyst Mark Hopkins: “The current Moody’s Analytics baseline forecast is for payroll employment to increase by 12 million jobs from the start of 2013 to the end of 2016 (134 million to 146)…In effect, therefore, Romney is essentially promising no more jobs than we currently expect to gain under proposals similar to those advanced by the Obama administration…If he’s saying the net change will be 12 million jobs, that’s exactly what we’re estimating without Romney’s plan.” On October 16th, The Washington Post’s Ezra Klein wrote: “This is a lot of misreading studies to get to a number that’s pretty easy to reach: According to Moody’s Analytics, the economy is set to add 12 million jobs over the next four years anyway. Romney’s goal might sound ambitious, but it’s actually what we expect will happen if policy stays more or less stable over the next few years.” [5]

5) Romney claimed the President Obama has engaged in a “spending binge”.

e.     This is a lie.

v.              In a May 22nd column titled “Obama Spending Binge Never Happened”, The Wall Street Journal’s Rex Nutting wrote: “Under Obama, federal spending is rising at the slowest pace since Dwight Eisenhower brought the Korean War to an end in the 1950’s…There has been no huge increase in spending under the current President, despite what you hear.” [6]
On May 22nd, the two-time 2009 Pulitzer Prize Winning Tampa Bay Times wrote: “Obama has indeed presided over the slowest growth in spending of any President using raw dollars, and it was the second-slowest if you adjust for inflation. The math simultaneously backs up Nutting’s calculations and demolishes Romney’s contention.” [4]  

6) Romney claimed that President Obama has gone on “apology tours” to “apologize for America”.

f.      That is a lie.

vi.            On June 3, 2011, The Associated Press wrote: “Obama has not apologized for America…There has been no formal—or informal—apology. No saying “sorry on behalf of America.” On April 25^th, Fox News’ “The Five” co-host Juan Williams said: “Talk about a phony argument. This business that somehow President Obama goes around apologizing for America—[The Tampa Bay Times’ 2009 Pulitzer-Prize-for-National-Reporting Winning Politifact.com], everybody has said it’s bogus.” On October 22^nd, The New York Times wrote: “He has never explicitly apologized for American values or principles…He never said he was sorry for American values or diplomacy.” On February 22, 2011, the Washington Post’s Glenn Kessler wrote: “The claim that Obama repeatedly has apologized for the United States is not borne out by the facts, especially if his full quotes are viewed in context…Republicans may certainly disagree with Obama’s handling of foreign policy or particular policies he has pursued, but they should not invent a storyline that does not appear to exist. Not to GOP speechwriters and campaign ad makers: The apology tour never happened.”

7) Romney claimed that, under Obama, America has been “shedding jobs year in and year out”.

g.     This is a lie.

vii.           On June 6^th, The Associated Press reported: “Since the recession officially ended in June 2009, private sector companies have added 3.1 million jobs.”  On May 4^th, The Wall Street Journal wrote: “The number of private-sector jobs in the U.S. economy is now higher than the month he took office…With the latest report, total private payrolls are now higher than they were in January 2009…Private payrolls as of April were up 760,000 from Obama’s first full month in office in February 2009.”

1. Appelbaum, B. et al. “Presidential Debate Fact-Checks And Updates”. The New York Times. October 16, 2012. http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/debates/presidential/2012-10-16#sha=87895f546
2. Baker, Dean. “Hannity’s Claim That “You Can’t Say The Economy Is Improving” Is silly Nonsense”. Media Matters For America. February 6, 2012. http://mediamatters.org/video/2012/02/06/economist-dean-baker-hannitys-claim-that-you-ca/185158
3. “Estimated Impact Of The American Recovery And Reinvestment Act On Employment And Economic Output As Of September 2009”. Congressional Budget Office. November 30, 2009. http://www.cbo.gov/publication/25005
4. Jacobson, Louis. “Lots Of Heat (And Some Light) On Obama’s Spending”. Tampa Bay Times. May 31, 2012. http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2012/may/25/lots-heat-and-some-light-obamas-spending/
5. Klein, Ezra. “The Romney Campaign’s Job Math is Just As Bad As Its Tax Math”. The Washington Post. October 16, 2012. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/10/16/the-romney-campaigns-job-math-is-just-as-bad-as-its-tax-math/
6. Nutting, Rex. Obama Spending Binge Never Happened: Government Outlays Rising At Slowest Pace Since 1950’s: Of All The Falsehoods Told About President Barack Obama, The Biggest Whopper Is The One About His Reckless Spending Spree”. The Wall Street Journal. May 22, 2012. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/obama-spending-binge-never-happened-2012-05-22
7. Rampell, Catherine. “Romney’s Job Growth Promises”. The New York Times. August 7, 2012. http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/07/romneys-job-growth-promises/


8. Part 2: Barack Obama

1)    President Obama stated Mitt Romney’s plan is for “five trillion [dollars] in tax cuts”.

a.     This is true.

                                               i.     In a March 1^st report, the Brookings Institution and Urban Institute Tax Policy Center found: “TPC estimates that on a static basis, the Romney plan would lower federal tax liability by asbout $900 billion in calendar year 2015 compared with current law roughly a 24 percent cut in total projected revenue. Relative to a current policy baseline, the reduction in liability would be about $480 billion in calendar year 2015.”

2)    The President then followed up by stating that Romney’s plan is for “two trillion [dollars] in military spending”.

a.     This, too, is true.

                                               i.     According to Center for a New American Security defense budget expert Travis Sharp, under Obama, the Pentagon’s budget is expected to run in the range of 3.2 to 3.5 percent of GDP in the next fiscal year, and it would cost $7.8 trillion to phase in an increase in the Pentagon’s base budget to a minimum of 4 percent of GDP over the next 10 years, from 2013 to 2022, using the Congressional Budget Office’s projections for economic growth. Since President Obama would spend $5.7 trillion on the base defense budget during that same 10-year period, Sharp determined that even a gradual ramp up to 4 percent would increase defense spending by $2.1 trillion over the next ten years.