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Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Hubbert Curve, Hubbert Peak, Peak Oil


“The west has been far too profligate in its use of oil;” said Scottish and Southern Energy chief of executive Ian Marchant; “and the price is going say: stop now and start using your oil as a scarce commodity…We can have a debate about which year this problem will hit us, but I would rather have a debate about how we avoid it becoming a problem.” [8] “The next five years will see us face another crunch: the oil crunch.” Said Virgin Group founder Sir Richard Branson. [5] “Even before we reach peak oil we could witness an oil supply crunch because of increased Asian demand.” Says Professor Paul Stevens at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, known as Chatham House. [7] “In terms of non-OPEC, we are expecting that in three, four years’ time the production of conventional oil will come to a plateau, and start to decline.” Claimed IEA chief economist Faith Birol. “In terms of the global picture, assuming that OPEC will invest in a timely manner, global conventional oil can still continue, but we still expect that it will come around 2020 to a plateau as well…I think time is not on our side here…We think that the crude oil production has already peaked, in 2006. [9] I think it would have been better if the governments have started to work on it at least 10 years ago.” [4] “The substitution of natural gas for oil combined with increasing fuel economy means oil demand is approaching a tipping point;” Says Citigroup oil analyst Seth Kleinman. “Taken together, the improvement in global fleet efficiency and the substitution of natural gas could be enough to put in a plateau for global oil demand by the end of this decade.” [3] “A supply crunch appears likely around 2013 [7]…an oil supply crunch in the medium term is likely to be due to a combination of insufficient investment in upstream oil and efficiency over the last two decades and rebounding demand following the global recession [2]…Major new investment in energy takes 10-15 years from the initial investment to first production;” Says Chatham House; “And to date we have not seen the amount of new projects that would supply the projected increase in demand.” [6] “With sufficient investment, the government does not believe that global oil production will peak between now and 2020;” Concluded the International Energy Agency. “The government does not feel the need to hold contingency plans specifically for the eventuality of crude oil supplies peaking between now and 2020.” “It is not possible to predict with any accuracy exactly when or why oil production will peak.” Found the Department of Energy and Climate Change. “A permanent decline in global oil production is unlikely to take place before 2020. However, if it was to happen, the consequences for economic prosperity and security are likely to be serious.” [9] “Companies which are able to take advantage of this new energy reality will increase both their resilience and competitiveness.” Says the Lloyd’s of London report “Sustainable Energy Security: Strategic Risks And Opportunities For Business”. “Failure to do so could lead to expensive and potentially catastrophic consequences.” [6] “Government public lines on peak oil are not quite right.” Warned the Ministry of Defense. “They need to take account of climate change and put more emphasis on reducing demand and also the fact that peak oil may increase volatility in the market.” [1] 


  1. Badal, L. and Macalister, T. “Peak Oil Alarms Revealed By Secret Official Talks”. The Observer. Saturday August 21, 2010. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/aug/22/peak-oil-department-energy-climate-change 
  2. Bailey, Ronald. “Gas Prices Explained”. Reason Foundation. August 31, 2010. http://reason.com/archives/2010/08/31/gas-prices-explained 
  3. Blas, Javier. “Peak Demand Theory Shakes Up Oil Debate”. The Financial Times. April 2, 2013. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e4af9eec-9b60-11e2-a820-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2RLlwqTeE 
  4. Inman, Mason. “The World Has Passed Peak Oil, Says Top Economist”. Duke University Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions. May 5, 2011. http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2011/05/05/the-world-has-passed-peak-oil-says-top-economist/ 
  5. Leggett, Jeremy. “The Next Crisis: Peak Oil”. Forbes. February 11, 2010. http://www.forbes.com/2010/02/11/peak-oil-crunch-opinions-contributors-jeremy-leggett.html 
  6. Macalister, Terry. “Lloyd’s adds Its Voice to Dire “Peak Oil” Warnings”. The Guardian. Sunday July 11, 2010. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jul/11/peak-oil-energy-disruption 
  7. Mackenzie, Kate. “Peak Oil vs. Supply Crunch—or, Both”. The Financial Times. July 12, 2010. http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2010/07/12/peak-oil-or-supply-crunch-or-both/#axzz2RLmXd3Ii 
  8. Mason, Rowena. “Oil Shortages by 2020 Due To Western “Profligacy”, Says Energy Boss”. The Telegraph. February 10, 2010. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/7206410/Oil-shortages-by-2020-due-to-Western-profligacy-says-energy-boss.html 
  9. Monbiot, George. “Peak Oil: “Nothing To Worry About”—But Labor Knew The Real Facts”. The Guardian. Thursday June 16, 2011. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2011/jun/16/peak-oil-labour-government


Thursday, April 18, 2013

Population Go Boom


10,000: That is approximately how many Homo sapiens existed 200,000 years ago. [5] There may have been as few as 15,000 of us roughly 70,000 years ago. There were only one billion people on the planet as recently as the turn of the 19th century and only a few thousand just 10,000 years ago. [2] It took humanity until the early 19th century to gain its first billion people then another 1.5 billion followed in the next century and a half. In just 60 years the world’s population has gained yet another 4.5 billion. [4] According to the Population Reference Bureau, the world did not reach 1 billion inhabitants until 1800, and it reached 2 billion in 1930. It took only 30 more years to reach 3 billion, 14 years to reach 4 billion, 13 years to reach 5 billion and 12 years to reach both 6 billion and 7 billion. [1] As NPR’s Adam Cole reports it was in 1804, just over two centuries ago, that the global population was 1 billion. [3] The six billionth person on the planet was born on October 12, 1999. [2] “ There is a window of uncertainty of at least six months before and six months after October 31 for the world population to reach seven billion.” Explains United Nations demographer Gerhard Heilig. [6] It is just 12 years since we went through the six billion barrier. [8] The 21st century is not yet a dozen years old, and there are already 1 billion more people than in October 1999. [4] “The addition of four billion people in five decades has no precedent.” Said Columbia University Earth Institute demographer Joel Cohen. “That is an exceptional event and will probably never be repeated within human history.” It may take 14 years to reach eight billion and it may take even longer to reach nine billion. [2] If U.N. projection prove correct, world population will reach 18 billion in just 13 years and 9.3 billion by mid-century. The U.N. has estimated a population of 9.3 billion by 2050, and there is expected to be more than 10 billion people on earth by 2100. [1] The U.N. had more recently predicted a leveling off at nine billion but now says we will reach the 10.1 figure in 2100. [2] U.N. forecasts suggest the world population hit a peak of 10.1 billion by 2100. [3] The median UN forecast is 9.3 billion by 2050, but the range varies by 2.5 billion—the total world population in 1950. [8] UN demographers are now projecting anywhere between 6.2 billion and 15.8 billion people at the end of the century. [4] “We simply don’t know for sure what will be the population size at a certain time in the future”; Demographer Wolfgang Lutz told the IIASA conference; “There are huge uncertainties involved.” “It’s both the most intimate of problems—what people do in their beds—and the most public problem”; Cohen said; “What people do in their bed has externalities that affect people who aren’t in bed with them.” [2] “We’re getting into more and more trouble the bigger the number gets”; Said Population Council vice president John Bongaarts; “Every billion people we add makes life more difficult for everybody that’s already here.” [1] According to U.N. demographers, “peak people” could top out at 10.1 billion. “These estimates are political numbers, intended to persuade people one way or another”; Cohen wrote in his book “How Many People Can The Earth Support”; “Either that too many humans are already on Earth or that there is no problem with continuing rapid population growth.” In the 1990’s, U.N. demographers forecast a peak at 7.8 billion, a milestone we will most likely blow past before 2030. In 1679, microbiologist Anton van Leeuwenhoek calculated the planet could sustain roughly 13.4 billion people. [2]

  1. Almond, Kyle. “Just How Big Is 7 Billion?” CNN. Monday October 31, 2011. http://www.cnn.com/2011/10/29/world/7-billion 
  2. Biello, David. “Human Population Reaches 7 Billion—How did This Happen And Can It Go On?”. Scientific American. October 27, 2011. http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=human-population-reaches-seven-billion 
  3. Cole, Adam. “Visualizing How A Population Grows To 7 Billion”. National Public Radio. October 31, 2011. http://www.npr.org/2011/10/31/141816460/visualizing-how-a-population-grows-to-7-billion 
  4. Engleman, Robert. “What A Population Of 7 Billion People Means For The Planet.” The Guardian. Monday July 18, 2011. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jul/18/population-7-billion-planet 
  5. Keim, Brandon. “Making Sense of 7 Billion People”. Wired. October 31, 2011. http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/10/7-billion-people/ 
  6. Mackey, Robert. “Global Population Reaches 7 Billion, or Doesn’t”. The New York Times. October 31, 2011. http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/31/celebrations-of-baby-7-billion-sow-confusion/ 
  7. Porritt, Jonathon. “Overpopulation: The Global Crisis That Dare Not Speak Its Name”. The Independent. Thursday October 27, 2011. http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/jonathon-porritt-overpopulation-the-global-crisis-that-dare-not-speak-its-name-2376464.html 
  8. Walsh, Bryan. “Why The Real Victim Of Overpopulation Will Be The Environment”. TIME. Wednesday October 26, 2011. http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,2097720_2097782_2097814,00.html



Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Metropolitan Megacities and Megalopolis


Out of the top 10 largest cities in the world Asia is home to 7 of them, with the top 7 metropolitan cities in the world being in Asia. [5] In 2005, Time Magazine proclaimed: “Virtually overnight, Chongqing has become the largest city not only in China, but in the world.” Chongqing, the economic center of the upstream Yangtze Basin, located on the confluence of the Yangtze and Jialing rivers, is not the largest city in the world, or even in China. [2] The largest city in China is Shanghai, the world’s busiest container port, originally established in the year 960 CE, commonly thought to have a population of 20.8 million. [5] University of Washington Professor Kam Wing Chan thinks a population of almost 14 million in Shanghai’s established city border is a better estimate: “Counting only the population of the urban locality without its suburbs is pretty ignorant of Shanghai’s true population.” [6] In fact, explains Chan, what China calls a city is better understood as a province, so huge it’s about the size of Austria. “Many of the 30 million people who are said to live in the city of Chongqing are actually agricultural workers lining in a rural setting. And if you were to travel from the downtown area to some of those 30 million live, it might take a day or two because the road conditions are not that good.” He says. “So this cannot possibly be called a city. Because when we call a place a city the general understanding is that we’re talking about a commuting zone.” [2] City planners in Southern China have laid blueprints to meld together the transport, energy, and telecommunications networks of the nine existing cities that lie around the Pearl River Dealta in the country’s manufacturing heartland: Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Zhuhai, Jiangmen, Huizhou and Zhaoqing, together nearly a tenth of the Chinese economy. At a cost of some 2 trillion yuan, the project dubbed “Turn the Pearl River Delta into One”, scheduled to be completed within the next six years, will turn the Pearl River Delta into a single 16,000 square mile sprawling urban area 26 times larger geographically than Greater London and twice the size of Wales, with a population of 42 million people. [1] [3] Twenty-nine rail lines, totaling some 3,100 miles of railway, will be laid. Ma Xiangming, the chief planner at the Guangdong Rural and Urban Planning Institute, told the Daily Telegraph no name had been chosen for the area: “It will not be like Greater London or Greater Tokyo because there is no one city at the heart of this megalopolis.” He said the main problem now is naming the area, adding: “We cannot just name it after one of the existing cities.” [3] The southern conglomeration is designed to rival the competitive productive firepower of growing urban areas around Bejing and Shanghai. Beihai, with its increasing importance as a gateway to China, is forecast to be the world’s fastest growing urban area between now and 2020. In the North, the process of merging the Bohai region, the area around Bejing and Tiajing, that will create super-urban area known as the Bohai Economic Rim has already begun with the connection of Bejing to Tianjing, two of China’s most important cities. Over the next five years, China’s total investment in urban infrastructure is expected to equal around 685 billion according to an estimate by the British Chamber of Commerce. By 2025, China will pave 5 billion square meters of road, add up to 170 mass transit systems, and spend 70 billon on urban transport. [3] The urban population of China accounts for close to 45 percent (601 million) of the country’s total number of people. [4] China builds around 20 brand new cities each year and by the end of the decade plans to move ever greater numbers into its cities, building 40 billion square meters of floor space by 2025. [1] Between now and 2030, the percentage of people living in urban areas will increase strongly in China, from 45 to 60 percent. [4]
The 9th edition of the National Geographic Atlas of the World, published in 2011, termed the urban area of the world largest cities “megacities”. [7] According to UN-Habitat’s State of World Cities Report, launched at the World Urban Forum in Rio de Janeiro, the world’s biggest cities are merging into mega-cities. “Research shows that the world’s largest 40 mega-regions cover only a tiny fraction of the habitable surface of our planet and are home to fewer than 18% of the world’s population but account for 66% of all economic activity and about 85% of technological and scientific innovation.” Said report co-author Eduardo Lopez Moreno. “Mega-regions, rather than countries, are now driving wealth. The top 25 cities in the world account for more than half of the world’s wealth. Most of the wealth in rural areas already comes from people in urban areas sending money back.” “Just over half of the world now lives in cities.” Said outgoing UN-Habitat director Anna Tibaijuka. [8] The UN wrote in its 20011 report on global urbanization that between 2011 and 2050, the population living in urban areas is projected to gain 2.6 billion from today’s nearly 53 percent to 67 percent. [4] “By 2050, over 70% of the world will be urban dwellers, only 14% of people in rich countries will live outside cities and 33% in poor countries.” The growth of mega-cities, say the authors, is leading to unprecedented urban sprawl, the symptom of a divided dysfunctional city. The world’s first mega-city, says the report, is the Hong Kong-Shenhzen-Guangzhou region in China, comprised of Hong Kong, Shenhzen and Guangzhou, home to about 120 million people. [8] Shenzhen-Hong Kong is treated as separate urban areas principally because labor movement between the two is limited. “The five largest cities in India and China now account for 50% of those countries’ wealth.” Said Moreno. [8] Between 2011 and 2050, Asia is projected to see its urban population increase by 1.4 billion. [4]

  1. “Largest City In The World: China To Build Metropolis Twice The Size Of Wales”. Daily Mail. January 26, 2011. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1350483/Largest-city-world-China-build-metropolis-twice-size-Wales.html 
  2. Alexander, Ruth. “The World’s Biggest Cities: How Do You Measure Them?” BBC News. January 28, 2012. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-16761784 
  3. Foster, Peter and Moore, Macom. “China To Create Largest Mega City In The World With 42 Million People.” The Telegraph. January 24, 2011. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8278315/China-to-create-largest-mega-city-in-the-world-with-42-million-people.html 
  4. Hove, Tann and Vassigh, Alidad. “Urban Population Growth Between 1950 and 2030. City Mayors. August 7, 2012. http://www.citymayors.com/statistics/urban-population-intro.html 
  5. Jackers, Carl. “Top 10 Largest Cities In The World 2013—Metropolitan Populations.” American Live Wire. March 31, 2013. http://americanlivewire.com/top-10-largest-cities-in-the-world-2013/
  6. Peach, Joe. “Megacities: Five Of The World’s “Biggest” Cities”. This Big City. May 14, 2012. http://thisbigcity.net/megacities-five-of-the-worlds-biggest-cities/ 
  7. Rosenberg, Matt. “The World’s Largest Megacities”. About.com. January 2, 2012. http://geography.about.com/od/worldcities/a/Largest-Cities-In-The-World.htm 
  8. Vidal, John. “UN Report: World’s Biggest Cities Merging Into “Mega-Regions”. The Guardian. Monday March 22, 2010. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/mar/22/un-cities-mega-regions