Hubbert Curve, Hubbert Peak, Peak Oil

“The west has been far too profligate in its use of oil;” said Scottish and Southern Energy chief of executive Ian Marchant; “and the price is going say: stop now and start using your oil as a scarce commodity…We can have a debate about which year this problem will hit us, but I would rather have a debate about how we avoid it becoming a problem.” [8] “The next five years will see us face another crunch: the oil crunch.” Said Virgin Group founder Sir Richard Branson. [5] “Even before we reach peak oil we could witness an oil supply crunch because of increased Asian demand.” Says Professor Paul Stevens at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, known as Chatham House. [7] “In terms of non-OPEC, we are expecting that in three, four years’ time the production of conventional oil will come to a plateau, and start to decline.” Claimed IEA chief economist Faith Birol. “In terms of the global picture, assuming that OPEC will invest in a timely manner, global conventional oil can still continue, but we still expect that it will come around 2020 to a plateau as well…I think time is not on our side here…We think that the crude oil production has already peaked, in 2006. [9] I think it would have been better if the governments have started to work on it at least 10 years ago.” [4] “The substitution of natural gas for oil combined with increasing fuel economy means oil demand is approaching a tipping point;” Says Citigroup oil analyst Seth Kleinman. “Taken together, the improvement in global fleet efficiency and the substitution of natural gas could be enough to put in a plateau for global oil demand by the end of this decade.” [3] “A supply crunch appears likely around 2013 [7]…an oil supply crunch in the medium term is likely to be due to a combination of insufficient investment in upstream oil and efficiency over the last two decades and rebounding demand following the global recession [2]…Major new investment in energy takes 10-15 years from the initial investment to first production;” Says Chatham House; “And to date we have not seen the amount of new projects that would supply the projected increase in demand.” [6] “With sufficient investment, the government does not believe that global oil production will peak between now and 2020;” Concluded the International Energy Agency. “The government does not feel the need to hold contingency plans specifically for the eventuality of crude oil supplies peaking between now and 2020.” “It is not possible to predict with any accuracy exactly when or why oil production will peak.” Found the Department of Energy and Climate Change. “A permanent decline in global oil production is unlikely to take place before 2020. However, if it was to happen, the consequences for economic prosperity and security are likely to be serious.” [9] “Companies which are able to take advantage of this new energy reality will increase both their resilience and competitiveness.” Says the Lloyd’s of London report “Sustainable Energy Security: Strategic Risks And Opportunities For Business”. “Failure to do so could lead to expensive and potentially catastrophic consequences.” [6] “Government public lines on peak oil are not quite right.” Warned the Ministry of Defense. “They need to take account of climate change and put more emphasis on reducing demand and also the fact that peak oil may increase volatility in the market.” [1] 

1. Badal, L. and Macalister, T. “Peak Oil Alarms Revealed By Secret Official Talks”. The Observer. Saturday August 21, 2010. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/aug/22/peak-oil-department-energy-climate-change 
2. Bailey, Ronald. “Gas Prices Explained”. Reason Foundation. August 31, 2010. http://reason.com/archives/2010/08/31/gas-prices-explained 
3. Blas, Javier. “Peak Demand Theory Shakes Up Oil Debate”. The Financial Times. April 2, 2013. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e4af9eec-9b60-11e2-a820-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2RLlwqTeE 
4. Inman, Mason. “The World Has Passed Peak Oil, Says Top Economist”. Duke University Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions. May 5, 2011. http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2011/05/05/the-world-has-passed-peak-oil-says-top-economist/ 
5. Leggett, Jeremy. “The Next Crisis: Peak Oil”. Forbes. February 11, 2010. http://www.forbes.com/2010/02/11/peak-oil-crunch-opinions-contributors-jeremy-leggett.html 
6. Macalister, Terry. “Lloyd’s adds Its Voice to Dire “Peak Oil” Warnings”. The Guardian. Sunday July 11, 2010. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jul/11/peak-oil-energy-disruption 
7. Mackenzie, Kate. “Peak Oil vs. Supply Crunch—or, Both”. The Financial Times. July 12, 2010. http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2010/07/12/peak-oil-or-supply-crunch-or-both/#axzz2RLmXd3Ii 
8. Mason, Rowena. “Oil Shortages by 2020 Due To Western “Profligacy”, Says Energy Boss”. The Telegraph. February 10, 2010. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/7206410/Oil-shortages-by-2020-due-to-Western-profligacy-says-energy-boss.html 
9. Monbiot, George. “Peak Oil: “Nothing To Worry About”—But Labor Knew The Real Facts”. The Guardian. Thursday June 16, 2011. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2011/jun/16/peak-oil-labour-government